Nearly were classified as being clinically overweight or obese in 2021. The rates have more than doubled compared with 1990.
Author
- Marie Ng
Affiliate Associate Professor of Global Health, University of Washington
Without urgent intervention, our study forecasts that more than 80% of adults and close to 60% of adolescents will be classified as overweight or obese by 2050. These are the key findings of our recent study, published in the journal The Lancet.
Synthesizing body mass index data from 132 unique sources in the U.S., and , we examined the historical trend of obesity and the condition of being overweight from 1990 to 2021 and forecast estimates through 2050.
For people 18 and older, the condition health researchers refer to as “overweight” was defined as having a , or BMI, of 25 kilograms per square meter (kg/m²) to less than 30 kg/m² and obesity as a BMI of 30 kg/m² or higher. For those younger than 18, we based definitions on the .
This study was conducted by the U.S. Obesity Forecasting Collaborator Group, which comprises over 300 experts and researchers specializing in obesity.
Why it matters
The U.S. already has one of the . Our study estimated that in 2021, a total of were medically classified as overweight or obese.
Obesity has and life expectancy in the U.S. compared with other high-income nations. Previous research showed that and is one of the most dominant and fastest-growing risk factors for poor health and early death. Obesity of diabetes, heart attack, stroke, cancer and mental health disorders.
The economic implications of obesity are also profound. A report by Republican members of the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, published in 2024, will rise to US$9.1 trillion over the next decade.
The rise in childhood and adolescent obesity is particularly concerning, with the rate of obesity since 1990. Data from the ³Ô¹ÏÍøÕ¾ Health and Nutrition Examination Survey revealed that nearly 20% of children and adolescents in the U.S. ages 2 to 19 .
By 2050, our forecast results suggest that 1 in 5 children and 1 in 3 adolescents will experience obesity. The not only triggers the early onset of chronic diseases but also negatively affects mental health, social interactions and physical functioning.
What other research is being done
Our research highlighted substantial geographical disparities in overweight and obesity prevalence across states, with southern U.S. states observing some of the highest rates.
Other studies on obesity in the United States have also underscored significant socioeconomic, racial and ethnic disparities. Previous studies suggest that compared with their white counterparts. These disparities are further , including discrimination, unequal access to education, health care and economic inequities.
Another active area of research involves identifying effective obesity interventions, including a recent study in Seattle demonstrating that taxation on sweetened beverages . Various community-based studies also investigated initiatives aimed at , .
Clinical research has been actively exploring and continuously monitoring the .
Furthermore, there is a growing body of research examining , such as mobile health apps, to support weight management. However, whether many of these programs are scalable and sustainable is not yet clear. This gap hinders the broader adoption and adaptation of effective interventions, limiting their potential impact at the population level.
What’s next
Our study forecasts trends in overweight and obesity prevalence over the next three decades, from 2022 to 2050, assuming no action is taken.
With the advent of new-generation anti-obesity medications, obesity management could change substantially. However, the extent of this impact will depend on factors such as cost, accessibility, coverage, long-term efficacy and variability in individual responses. Future research will need to leverage the most up-to-date evidence.
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