Vice President Kamala Harris had only just been endorsed by Joe Biden to take his spot as the Democratic nominee for president when she Americans “what’s at stake in November” in a post on X:
Author
Prudence Flowers
Senior Lecturer in US History, College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Flinders University
Let’s be clear: Donald Trump would sign a national abortion ban and restrict access to contraception if given the chance.
Abortion has long been a hot-button election issue in the United States, but in the first presidential election since , it could be the defining issue.
If Harris does become the Democratic nominee, which seems increasingly likely, former President Donald Trump could be more vulnerable on the issue, particularly given his selection of J.D. Vance as his Republican running mate.
What Americans think about abortion
In June 2022, the US Supreme Court Roe v Wade, finding there was no constitutional right to abortion and returning regulation to the states.
Since then, has resulted in Democratic successes in multiple state elections. Every time reproductive rights have been on the ballot, , even in conservative states like Kansas and Kentucky.
Although some of the initial fury has diminished, polls this year show a majority of voters .
According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, which is up four percentage points from 2021. Notably, two-thirds of moderate Republicans also say they support abortion rights.
In another poll by Gallup, of registered voters said they would “only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion”. This is the highest percentage since Gallup began tracking voter sentiment on abortion in 1992. Back then, only 13% of voters agreed with the statement.
And in key battleground states for this year’s presidential election, agreed abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
Harris’s stance on abortion
Democrats are keenly aware abortion matters. In the presidential debate last month, however, Biden on the issue. Trump set the terms of the discussion, and Biden failed to convincingly defend reproductive rights or rebut about later abortion care that Trump has been since 2016.
Harris, by contrast, is far more assertive and confident when talking about abortion.
After she was elected to the US Senate in 2017 – the same year Trump entered the White House – she was the who had a reproductive rights lawyer on staff, according to one activist.
She voted and . A leading right-to-life group gives her Senate record an “” grade.
During Supreme Court nomination hearings for Brett Kavanaugh, Harris displayed the rhetorical talents she honed as a prosecutor and California’s attorney general. She repeatedly challenged him to name ““. Trump later complained that Harris was “” senator.
Harris was to the Biden administration’s response after the Supreme Court’s decision on Roe v Wade – both as the public face speaking to Americans, and as the leader in policy discussions about how to claw back protections.
And she was the point person on abortion in Biden’s re-election campaign. On January 22, the anniversary of the 1973 Roe decision, Harris embarked on a “” tour, giving stump speeches on abortion in multiple battleground states.
Then, in March, she toured a , the first US president or vice president to do so.
Republicans’ shifting tone
Republicans, meanwhile, have radically revamped their usual electoral strategies.
At the 2020 Republican ³Ô¹ÏÍøÕ¾ Convention, abortion was a prominent theme in Trump’s speech and right-to-life leaders were given coveted speaking slots.
But at this year’s convention, almost no one mentioned the topic. That included , who has been outspoken in his opposition to abortion.
The Republican Party platform has also significantly trimmed back its language on the issue, a more than 40-year-old promise to support national restrictions on abortion. (The platform instead contains language about the 14th Amendment, which is a veiled nod to the argument that ).
Trump is manoeuvring awkwardly on the issue, as well. He has claimed to be the “,” taking sole credit for the end of Roe.
Yet, simultaneously, he has eschewed responsibility for the abortion bans now in place in .
Trump has spent the last year casting himself as an abortion “moderate”, arguing that regulation should be . But he has by refusing to endorse a national ban and by describing Florida’s six-week ban as “a terrible thing and a terrible mistake.”
Contrasting views on the Trump-Vance ticket
Trump’s selection of Vance as his running mate has made things more complicated. Vance’s stances on reproductive health care are extreme even for a Republican.
Vance against a law protecting in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) rights. He also called on the attorney general’s office to enforce a 151-year-old “zombie law” that would through the mail.
Trump, meanwhile, has said he “” IVF, and has promised he would “” medication abortion.
Vance said in 2022 he would like ““, and has in abortion law.
Trump compares himself to former President Ronald Reagan in his .
Vance now claims to share Trump’s approach to abortion but given both of them have such shifting views, it’s impossible to gauge what this means in practice. As Trump has repeatedly told his right-to-life supporters, ““.
If he does win, however, it seems he will attempt to advance the anti-abortion agenda outlined in . Central to this is a on medication abortion.
Harris has the capacity to bring the abortion fight to Trump and wage it with a prosecutor’s zeal. It will likely be a crucial part of her arsenal if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee.
Prudence Flowers has received funding from the South Australian Department of Human Services. She is a member of the South Australian Abortion Action Coalition.
