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Online, people predicted the 2024 US election would be .

According to a 2024 Pew Research Center poll, of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, which is up four percentage points from 2021.

In another poll by Gallup, of registered voters said they would “only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion”.

. Many predicted it would mean huge numbers of women turned out in support of Kamala Harris and the Democrats.

That did not happen.

In fact, exit polling indicates that while women of colour overwhelmingly voted for Harris, a voted for Donald Trump. This mirrors their electoral choices in .

Yet voters clearly were concerned about abortion.

Seven of the 10 state reproductive rights ballot initiatives , including in the swing state of Arizona. And while the Florida initiative was defeated, it still received a clear majority of the vote, while failing to reach the required in that state.

This seeming anomaly may indicate that voters genuinely believe that after the Supreme Court and found there was not a constitutional right to abortion, the issue is now exclusively a state matter.

If so, they are in for a rude awakening.

Conservatives see the federal government as central in their fight against legal abortion.

So what might a Trump victory mean for abortion access in the US and beyond?

Trump, abortion, and the election

Early in the primaries, Trump claimed to be the ” “, taking sole credit for the end of Roe v Wade.

Yet simultaneously, because abortion had become politically toxic for Republicans, Trump from the bans that had swept the nation. He insisted abortion regulation was now exclusively a state matter.

After months of questioning, Trump indicated he would (a promise few ).

For his running mate, Trump chose J.D. Vance, who has previously said he would like ” ” and called for a to block travel to access abortion. He also in abortion law.

And Trump has pledged to put Robert F. Kennedy junior, a notable vaccine and fluoride sceptic, ” ” women’s health.

Kennedy has made about abortion, including expressing support for a federal ban after 15 weeks.

Abortion in the US under Trump 2.0

After spending all election denying a connection between Project 2025 and Trump, some conservatives, including Steve Bannon who is fresh out of prison, “joked” on election eve that finally, the charade was over.

If Trump follows the regulatory vision outlined by and , there will be consequences that transcend state borders.

An immediate priority for opponents of abortion is preventing women and pregnant people in states with bans from accessing abortion care.

Idaho, Tennessee and Alabama have laws making it a crime to to access an abortion out of state. Several Texas counties have made it to access abortion.

Multiple pro-choice states have passed ” ” to protect doctors from being prosecuted by other states for providing .

Anti-abortion legislators condemn this as states ” “. They want to see these strategies .

In both situations, a Trump Department of Justice will energise anti-abortion activists, legislators and lawyers.

Many call for Congress to establish a ” ” after which abortion would be illegal. This is simply a rebranded federal ban.

A much broader threat is the , a federal obscenity law that dates back almost to the Civil War era.

Conservatives, including the authors of Project 2025, interpret this law as the mailing of abortion-related drugs or paraphernalia.

Comstock featured in a recent Supreme Court case about Mifepristone, one of the key drugs in medication abortion used in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy. In 2023, of abortions in the US were medication abortions.

Some conservatives also argue that Comstock extends to the medical equipment and supplies used to provide surgical abortion.

In January 2023, some Congressional Republicans, including , wrote to the attorney-general calling on the Department of Justice to enforce what was once viewed as a .

There is also the very real likelihood that Trump will have at least one Supreme Court vacancy to fill. Both Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito are rumoured to be .

Trump has been clear he would appoint ” ” nominees to judicial vacancies with the goal of extending his legacy decades into the future.

Even with the fall of Roe v Wade, the Supreme Court is still a for people who want to make abortion completely illegal. Their goal is a decision that interprets the 14th Amendment as giving fetuses the same rights as all other persons.

“Fetal personhood” arguments gained international attention this year because they underpinned the 2024 Alabama state court decision that found that embryos were legally ” “. This renders most forms of IVF illegal.

US election, global impact

Another Trump presidency will also have global consequences for abortion provision, access and politics.

Like every Republican dating back to , Trump will reintroduce the so-called “global gag rule”. This prevents foreign NGOs that receive US aid from providing information, counselling or referrals for legal abortion.

Previously, this rule applied solely to NGOs engaged in family planning services.

Under Trump, it was and applied to the US$9.5 billion worth of foreign aid for global health assistance. This had particularly dire consequences for initiatives relating to sexual and reproductive health.

In the United Nations, we should again expect the US to start finding common cause on issues like abortion with Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other countries dubbed the ” “.

Meanwhile, the US election result will further embolden opponents of abortion globally, including here in Australia.

Only a few days ago, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton read his MPs the ” ” over the abortion issue. He warned it was a distraction that had cost the LNP votes in the recent Queensland election.

Given how quickly anti-abortion senators like and congratulated Trump on his victory, one cannot help but wonder whether they will be drawing quite a different lesson from this election result.