“The latest AEMO electricity reliability projections are a dire warning that again alarms industry and sends a strong message to policy makers to get on with building the energy infrastructure we need,” Innes Willox, Chief Executive of the national employer association Ai Group, said today.
“As we have been warning for years, if we fail to deliver the full slate of new transmission, generation and storage projects, we will see supply fall far short of demand every summer.
“Delaying retirements of old coal generators is an obvious stopgap, albeit with large risks of its own. AEMO underlines that the overall reliability of the coal fleet has been increasingly poor, particularly in 2022-23. We shouldn’t close assets before we’ve replaced them. But geriatric generators are making themselves unavailable, whether we are ready to decommission them or not.
“The only thing that can break us out of this downward energy spiral is to build and activate new energy resources, including both large centralised transmission, generation and storage projects and much more and better-coordinated demand-side assets like distributed generation, energy storage and smart energy use.
“While a slew of Federal and State government programs and projects aim to bring on the public and private investment needed to fill the gap, they are not yet far enough advanced for AEMO to be able to include them in its intentionally-conservative forecast.
“All of those projects face a severe test: can we build them?
“Building energy projects has turned out to be much slower and harder than announcing them. Regulatory wheels grind only gradually. Objections to development are common, intense and take time and money to resolve, if they are resolved at all. Supply chains are stretched globally and locally.
“This should be a reality check for everyone, because everyone has a stake in the success of our energy buildout.
“If we can’t build, the lights will go out much more often and bills will be much higher – for people in the regions as much as people in the cities.
“If we can’t build, new industrial opportunities will vanish overseas – and so may much of our existing energy-intensive industries.
“If we can’t build, our growth prospects and our emissions goals alike will be scaled back and back again.
“There are no magic fixes. Undergrounding transmission lines is unlikely to make anyone happy, least of all energy users who’d bear much higher costs. New nuclear power might do better than current high cost expectations, in the 2030s, if it isn’t illegal. But if we can’t win the social license for a transmission line or build hydro turbines on time, a nuclear future will remain out of reach.
“The only way through is the hard graft of implementation. Investment frameworks need to be settled, auctions run, regulatory tests completed, planning approvals granted. Local and global equipment suppliers need a clear pipeline of demand so they can be available to meet it. Affected communities need intense engagement, appropriate rewards for development, and the clear widely reinforced message that their fate and an affordable and sustainable energy future rides on successful development too,” Mr Willox said.
