ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose by 0.4% m/m in July following a downward revision in June to -2.7% m/m from -2.5% m/m.
In trend terms, the series declined 0.7%m/min July. ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads have fallen 10.4% from the September peak but remain high compared to historical levels.
ANZ Economist Madeline Dunk said: “ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose a touch in July. But the series has fallen 2.1% over the past three months, suggesting the July lift is likely to be a blip.
“There are other signs labour market momentum is starting to slow as the RBA’s 400bp of hikes flow through to economic activity. NAB’s Business Survey shows the proportion of businesses reporting labour as a constraint on output has fallen from a peak of 91% to 83% in Q2.Other leading indicators such as forward orders and consumer employment expectations are also coming off. Alongside the downward trend in Job Ads, this suggests we’ll see a gradual cooling of the labour market from its very strong starting position.”
Indeed Senior Economist Callam Pickering said: “In July, ongoing declines in New South Wales and Victoria were offset by gains in the other states and territories. That has been a common occurrence throughout 2023. Since the beginning of the year, Job Ads are down in three-quarters of sectors Indeed analysed, led by food preparation, personal care and cleaning & sanitation. Some occupations, most notably those in the healthcare sector, have strengthened this year, defying the national trend.
“Recruitment overall remains quite challenging but high population, combined with the ongoing decline in Job Ads, is slowly addressing skill shortages.”
