The Bureau has released its 2024 Summer Long-Range Forecast, which shows that summer is likely to be warmer than average across most of the country.
Also, more than usual summer rainfall is likely for many parts of the country, particularly in December.
Most of the country is more likely to have a typical range of January rainfall, although parts of eastern New South Wales and south-east Queensland may see above average rainfall.
October to April is Australia’s peak time for severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, flooding, heatwaves and bushfires.
Severe thunderstorms are more common in the warmer months, bringing heavy rainfall, damaging winds, large hail and the risk of flooding anywhere in Australia.
The Long-Range Forecast is updated weekly and provides a three-month outlook for rainfall and temperature.
Stay up to date with the 7-day forecast for your area at www.bom.gov.au.
2024 Summer Long-Range Forecast (states and territories)
New South Wales and the ACT
Large parts of New South Wales are likely to have warmer than usual temperatures this summer.
However, some parts around the Central, Southern and Northern Tablelands could have more milder temperatures.
The ACT is expected to see temperatures typical of summer.
However, warmer night-time temperatures are very likely across both New South Wales and the ACT.
Most of New South Wales and the ACT is expected to be wetter than usual, especially in December.
In January the forecast currently signals the chance for above average rainfall in eastern parts of the state.
Average summer rainfall in recent decades has been between 200 and 600 mm along most of eastern NSW, while western and central NSW have between 50 and 200 mm.
Victoria
Victoria is likely to have warmer than usual summer temperatures, both during the day and overnight.
Above average summer rainfall is likely for most of the state.
The highest chance of above average rainfall is currently during December, where wetter conditions are likely across most of Victoria, except some western parts of the state.
Most of the state is forecast to have rainfall in the typical range for January.
Average summer rainfall in recent decades ranges between 50 mm in the west, up to 300 mm in eastern and alpine areas.
Queensland
Most of Queensland is likely to have warmer than usual summer temperatures with an increased chance of unusually warm night-time temperatures.
Above average summer rainfall is likely for most of Queensland.
The highest chance for above average rainfall is currently in December, where wetter conditions are likely across the state, particularly in the north-east.
In January, the forecast currently signals the chance for above average rainfall in parts of the state’s south-east.
However, most of the state is forecast to have rainfall in the typical range for January.
Average summer rainfall in recent decades has been between 300 and 1,200 mm along most of the state’s east into the north, while western and central Qld have between 50 and 300 mm.
Western Australia
Most of coastal Western Australia is likely to have warmer than usual summer temperatures.
Northern and western areas are also very likely to have unusually warm overnight temperatures. And warmer night-time temperatures are very likely this summer across the state.
Above average summer rainfall is likely for most of the Western Australia.
The highest chance of above average rainfall is during December, where wetter conditions are likely across most of the state, particularly in northern coastal regions.
Although the south-west is likely to see rainfall more typical of summer.
Average summer rainfall in recent decades has been between 25 and 100 mm for most of the South West Land Division.
South Australia
Most of South Australia is likely to have warmer than usual summer temperatures with an increased chance of warm night-time temperatures.
Above average summer rainfall is likely for most of South Australia.
Wetter conditions are more likely in December except some areas in the far south-east and parts of the north.
Most of the state is forecast to have rainfall in the typical range for January.
Average summer rainfall in recent decades has been between 50 and 100 mm for most of the state, and 25 to 50 mm for parts of the Eyre Peninsula.
Tasmania
Tasmania is very likely to have warmer than usual summer temperatures with a high chance of unusually warm days and nights.
Above average summer rainfall is likely for eastern Tasmania, where the highest chance of above average rainfall is currently during December.
Western Tasmania is likely to have rainfall within the typical range for summer.
Average summer rainfall in recent decades has been between 200 mm and 600 mm for western Tasmania, while eastern areas typically have between 100 mm and 300 mm.
Northern Territory
Large parts of the Northern Territory are likely to have warmer than usual December to February temperatures.
And warmer night-time temperatures are very likely everywhere.
Above average December to February rainfall is likely for parts of the NT.
The highest chance for above average rainfall is currently in December, where wetter conditions are likely in the north.
Most of the Territory is forecast to have rainfall in the typical range for January.
Average December to February rainfall in recent decades has been between 400 and 1,200 mm along most of the north, inland areas have between 50 and 400 mm.
Spring – Preliminary Summary
Spring to date has been much warmer than usual. There has been a contrast in spring rainfall between the west and the east with conditions much wetter than usual in large parts of the west, while drier in some parts of southern and eastern Australia.
The exception in the east is around the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales and some parts of Queensland’s south-east and western inland areas, which had a relatively wet spring.
For Australia overall, spring rainfall is tracking close to average. However, spring in Western Australia has been one of the top 10 wettest on record.
The national summary for spring and November will be on the Bureau’s website from 2 December: bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml
Detailed summaries for spring and November conditions for each state and capital city will be published on 4 December.
