Burnet Institute was a collaborator on the second phase of modelling led by the Doherty Institute to support the ³Ô¹ÏÍøÕ¾ Plan to Transition Australia’s ³Ô¹ÏÍøÕ¾ COVID Response.
Presented to ³Ô¹ÏÍøÕ¾ Cabinet on Friday, 5 November, the modelling consists of three work packages, which are outlined below along with the high-level findings for each.
The ‘Synthesis’ Technical Report and Attachments can be found on the .
, Burnet’s Head of Modelling and Biostatistics led the work related to schools.
Work Package 1: Modelling to inform review and refinement of public health response measures for optimal utility and sustainability in Phase B and beyond
Findings:
- With COVID-19 vaccination coverage greater than 70 percent, around half of all infections will be in vaccinated people, so milder and less infectious
- Management of vaccinated cases and contacts can be simplified, but ‘Test, Trace, Isolate, Quarantine’ (TTIQ) remains critical for control
- Ongoing evaluation of the impacts of TTIQ on transmission potential will be needed for situational assessment
Work Package 2: Optimise vaccination at sub-jurisdictional level, including attention to key populations and risk settings (First Nations, CALD and low SES communities, and schools)
Findings:
First Nations
- High levels of COVID-19 vaccine coverage can reduce transmission and health impacts in remote and urban communities
- Reactive vaccine approaches are a useful adjunct to community engaged and led outbreak response
- Providing access to effective treatments will further promote health outcomes
Local Government Areas
- Baseline transmission potential differs by small area, as do COVID-19 vaccine and public health and social measure impacts (ability to work from home)
- Focused TTIQ and wrap around supports will be needed to constrain transmission potential in high-risk areas
Schools
- Early infection detection and high COVID-19 vaccine coverage markedly reduce outbreak risk
- ‘Test to stay’ is equivalent to quarantine and enables face-to-face learning
- Regular screening of students in areas at risk of outbreaks can result in even fewer infections and in-person teaching days lost
- School based surveillance testing will have maximum utility in areas with higher-than-average transmission
- Surveillance of teachers had minimal benefit for reducing outbreaks in schools
Work Package 3: Review border measures and arrivals pathways in context of revised risk tolerance
Findings:
- COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of quarantine breach events, mitigating against shorter duration of quarantine
- Breach importations do not materially impact on established epidemics or lead to large outbreaks where vaccine coverage is high if strain characteristics are equivalent
