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A paper by a research team at the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University provides insights into the geographic spread of the novel coronavirus by focusing on metropolitan areas. The data show that large urban areas with the highest total number of infections and fatalities, while the most conspicuous markers of the pandemic, are not the only places in the U.S. where COVID-19 is likely to make significant inroads.

“Our findings suggest that New York-like Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle-is not the pandemic epicenter, but the vanguard,” said Professor Shlomo (Solly) Angel, the lead researcher and a professor of urban planning with the Marron Institute.

According to the main reason that some metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) currently report more infections and deaths than others is that their outbreaks occurred earlier. Angel’s team aggregated data by MSA, and this approach revealed patterns that are obscured at the state or county level. Five metropolitan statistical areas, for example, reported more deaths from the coronavirus per 100,000 population by March 27 than did New York (3.2). These included: Albany, GA (12.8), New Orleans (7.8), Seattle (4.2), Pittsfield, MA (3.8) and Burlington, VT (3.8), according to the paper. But New York was the first metropolitan statistical area to report 10 cases, on March 1. New York now is among the hardest hit by the pandemic.

In addition to outbreak timing, the researchers’ data maps indicated that an MSA’s population size and density, as well as (although not statistically significantly) its gateway connectivity to the world, are key factors in coronavirus prevalence and impact.

By March 27, there were 258 MSAs-66 percent of all metropolitan statistical areas in the country-reporting an outbreak. These MSAs comprise 73 percent of the U.S. population and had a joint GDP of $16.7 trillion in 2018, accounting for 84 percent of U.S. GDP.