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Data assimilation method offers improved hurricane forecasting

Using a technique developed at Penn State, researchers were better able to predict models for forecasting Hurricane Harvey. This approach uses all-sky radiance, which uses infrared technology to capture data in all-weather conditions.

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Operational models for severe weather forecasting predicted Hurricane Harvey would become a Category 1 hurricane in 2017, according to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Instead, it became a massive Category 4 just before it made landfall, tying Hurricane Katrina for the costliest hurricane on record.

Now a new approach developed at can forecast the intensity and trajectory of Hurricane Harvey, according to researchers at Penn State and the ³Ô¹ÏÍøÕ¾ Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

The approach used data from the GOES-16 satellite, coupled with Penn State’s all-sky radiance method, which more accurately modeled Hurricane Harvey. The data is called “all-sky” because it captures data in all weather conditions, including clouds and rain.

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