OECD GDP growth still weak at 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022
21 Feb 2023 – Gross domestic product (GDP) in the OECDrose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates. Quarterly OECD growth rates have remained weak throughout 2022 in a context of high inflation and rising interest rates.
In the G7, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth also slowed slightly in Q4 2022, to 0.4% compared with 0.5% in Q3 2022. This result reflects a mixed picture among G7 countries. On the one hand, growth turned negative in Germany and Italy (minus 0.2% and minus 0.1% respectively) and slowed to 0.4% in Canada, to 0.1% in France and to 0.7% in the United States. On the other hand, GDP grew by 0.2% in Japan following a contraction of 0.3% in Q3 2022, and was flat in the United Kingdom following a contraction of 0.2% in the previous quarter (Figure 1). Among other OECD countries for which data is available, Ireland[1] recorded the strongest GDP growth (3.5%) in Q4 2022.
For the G7 countries that have already published detailed preliminary GDP estimates, volatile movements in international trade continued to have a substantial effect as noted in the for Q3 2022. In the fourth quarter, this was particularly true for the United States, where the contribution to GDP growth of net exports (exports minus imports) added only 0.1 percentage points (ppts) to growth compared with 0.7 ppts in the third quarter; and for the United Kingdom, where net exports subtracted 0.8 ppts from growth, compared with an addition of 3.7 ppts in the third quarter.
Of the OECD countries closest to the war in Ukraine, GDP contracted in Poland in Q4 2022 (minus 2.4%), the strongest contraction in OECD countries for which data is available. GDP also contracted in Lithuania (minus 1.7%) and in Hungary, although at a slower pace (minus 0.4% in Q4 2022, compared with minus 0.7% in the third quarter). On the other hand, growth remained steady in the Slovak Republic.
In Q4 2022, GDP in the OECD exceeded its pre-pandemic (Q4 2019) level by 3.8% (Figure 2). Initial estimates of annual GDP growth (Figure 3) indicate that GDP continued to grow in the OECD in 2022 (2.9%), but at a more moderate pace than in 2021 (5.7%) when economies were recovering from the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among G7 countries, the United Kingdom recorded the highest annual growth in 2022 (4.0%), followed by Italy (3.8%) and Canada (3.6%), while Japan recorded the lowest growth (1.1%). Among other OECD countries for which data is available, Ireland recorded the highest annual growth in 2022 (12.2%), while Latvia recorded the lowest (1.5%).
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1Ireland published for the first time a preliminary estimate of GDP, 30 days after the end of the reference quarter.
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