The Bureau of Meteorology is improving its climate information to help the community better understand forecasts for the season ahead.
The community is encouraged to follow the Bureau’s short-term and long-term forecasts, rather than focusing on the outlook for climate indicators such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation.
The changes will help to provide the most relevant and accurate information, based on whole-of-system weather observations, modelling and more precise predictions.
Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said as our climate continues to change, our historical experience is less aligned to the present and future climate. Therefore, old methods of prediction have become less reliable and new models based on current information are a more reliable way to help the community and industry best plan and prepare for coming seasonal trends.
“We are moving away from focusing on individual environmental phenomena. In a changing climate it is more difficult to make predictions based on events when they are looked at individually – climate systems are complex and cannot be explained by just one influencing factor.
“The Bureau’s long-range 90-day forecasts, which are issued and updated regularly, are the best guide for the community regarding Australia’s likely rainfall and temperature for the weeks and months ahead,” Dr Braganza said.
The Bureau’s long-range forecasts are informed by the physics-based ACCESS-S dynamical model, which has been developed and consistently improved over the past decade. This model takes in current atmospheric and oceanic observations, including changing greenhouse gas concentrations, and uses physics to produce its forecasts. It inputs the most up-to-date data, keeping track of ongoing changes in our climate systems and conditions in our oceans and atmosphere that influence seasonal weather.
As the most trusted source of climate information for Australia, the Bureau’s information on current conditions, including all relevant data on climate indicators, will be published on the new Southern Hemisphere monitoring and outlook web pages. They will include data on relevant environmental phenomena such as:
- Sea surface temperatures
- El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – neutral, La Nina or El Nino
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – neutral, positive, or negative
- ENSO and IOD forecasts using the Bureau’s
- Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – neutral, positive, or negative
- Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) – location and strength.
From today, the Bureau will cease issuing:
- fortnightly Climate Driver Updates
- publication of international climate model summaries and forecasts for ENSO and the IOD,
- ENSO Outlook Watch and Alert statements and using the ENSO dial.
Further updates will include improvements to the long-range forecast maps and supporting materials, making them easier to use and understand.
