It’s now very likely Australia will be announced as the host of the COP31 global climate talks in 2026 alongside Pacific nations. This would be a very big deal. The talks run for a fortnight and draw tens of thousands of delegates. It would be the largest diplomatic summit Australia has ever held, with satellite events in Pacific nations.
Author
Wesley Morgan
Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney
A decision – made by other countries in our United Nations regional grouping – is expected in November. Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane have already signalled interest in hosting.
Hosting these talks can boost national fortunes. When the United Kingdom hosted the talks in 2021, it was their biggest international success after the pain of Brexit, .
The talks would bring global attention – and heighten expectations. Playing host would cement Australia’s place in the emerging net-zero economy, galvanise the federal government’s green industry plans and rapidly build the trade and diplomatic ties needed to develop new markets for clean energy goods.
In a Climate Council and Smart Energy Council report , we lay out how important these talks would be to shift Australia away from fossil-fuel exports, switch from mining dirty to mining clean, rebuild our position in the acutely climate-aware Pacific and secure new economic opportunities in Asia.
A talkfest – but a vital one
Critics of these talks often frame them as a where nothing actually happens.
But consider the problem. Almost 200 countries with very different interests send representatives. Island nations in the Pacific don’t profit from fossil fuel sales, but face the loss of their land to the sea and their reefs to the heat. Major fossil fuel exporters, however, have an incentive to go slow.
As extreme weather and marine heating intensify, the climate crisis is becoming more visible everywhere. People are being forced from their homes in Tuvalu and Lismore alike. A third of Australians worry extreme weather may force them to . We all have a shared interest in going fast.
Progress is finally happening. After the crucial 2015 Paris Agreement, COP talks have been characterised by negotiation over how to cut greenhouse gas emissions and . At these talks, countries also toward their shared goals and wealthier nations may pledge support .
But they are more than this. They are also a de facto global trade fair, bringing together major players in clean energy industries and providing a platform to attract global investment in local projects. As host, Australia could shape the agenda for important informal discussions alongside the formal meetings.
There’s already interest from , and in hosting the talks.
Major sporting events such as the Commonwealth Games often require custom-built facilities. But the COP talks just need good conference centres, hotels and transport. Hosting the UN talks could deliver the chosen city a windfall of , equivalent to about four AFL grand finals. Hosting the 2021 talks added an estimated to the overall UK economy.
All signs suggest the Australia/Pacific bid is likely to be chosen. The 2026 COP host will be decided by countries in the ‘‘ regional grouping at the UN (COP hosting is rotated among regions). There’s already public support from the United States, , , Germany, New Zealand, and . The other bidder, Türkiye, does not currently have public backing.
Australia’s bid has widespread domestic support. A recent Lowy poll 70% of Australians are supportive. Business groups are also supportive, while major banks are already working to in anticipation.
What would it mean for Australia-Pacific relationships?
Pacific island countries see climate change as their “” threat. Leaders see climate change impacts – stronger cyclones, devastating floods, rising seas, dying reefs and ocean acidification – as than geopolitical manoeuvring.
Pacific nations have at COP talks to drive global climate action. They have earned a reputation for sticking to the science, and were instrumental in securing landmark climate deals like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
On climate, Australia can now bring more to the table. Already, runs on clean energy. That figure will likely reach 80% by 2030. Australia is funding a range of Pacific .
A key tension remains, however. Pacific island nations have urged major powers to , while Australia has recently emerged as one of the fossil fuel exporters.
Co-hosting COP31 could help this tension by signalling Australia’s shift from fossil fuel heavyweight to clean energy powerhouse.
New economic opportunities in Asia (and beyond)
Global demand and investment is from fossil fuels to clean energy commodities.
To reach net zero, the International Energy Agency fossil fuels will drop from 80% of total energy supply in 2022 to 20% by 2050. Demand for coal, oil and gas is now expected to decline this decade.
Japan, China and South Korea buy of Australia’s coal and gas exports. But Japan and Korea now plan to double clean energy generation , while China commissioned as much solar in 2023 .
These shifts have huge implications. Last week, the Climate Change Authority showing Australia’s fossil fuel exports would fall 60% by 2050 if we and our trading partners take strong climate action – while our other mineral and metal exports would surge by 65%.
If the Australia/Pacific COP bid gets up as expected, the federal government must begin shaping the agenda now.
