Issued: 27 April 2022
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest climate outlooks show that La Niña is weakening in the Pacific Ocean with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely to return to a neutral status for winter.
Senior Climatologist Catherine Ganter said La Niña is weakening, but remains active.
“It’s likely that the ENSO will return to neutral with the current La Niña event expected to end around late autumn to early winter,” she said.
“While active, La Niña brings more rain than average to eastern parts of Australia, through the influence of warmer sea surface temperatures in the Australian region, and trade winds from the east. In the neutral state, instead, rainfall tends to be close to average values “
Ms Ganter said the other climate driver bringing interest was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This is currently neutral but is forecast to develop into a negative IOD in the coming months.
“A negative IOD typically means we’re more likely to see above average winter and spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia,” she said.
The current May to July outlook indicates a strong chance of above average rainfall for much of Australia, with lower chances in south-west Australia and western Tasmania.
“Climate model projections do generally have lower accuracy at this time of year so the IOD outlook needs to be closely monitored and its forecast continuously updated.”
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