The study compared pedestrian counts from the last full year prior to COVID-19 (2019) to the first year clear of major restrictions (2022).
Between 2010-2019, there was a positive trend in pedestrian traffic, with increasing number of pedestrians across key times all days of the week, except Sundays. However, the recent trends are still a long way from what they used to be.
Some pedestrian counts on weekdays in 2022 were back to only about 59% of the 2019 figures.
Friday and Monday are the furthest away from being ‘normal’ and unlikely to return to pre-COVID levels for another six years, according to projections in the study, while Tuesday could be back on trend within four years.
Contrasting this, weekend traffic returned to about 92% of the 2019 figures and looks to exceed current estimates.
Researcher Associate Professor Ashton de Silva said recovery for cities and regions may be a long and difficult process and detailed micro-data, such as pedestrian data, will provide timely information to enable more effective interventions to support residents and businesses in their recovery.
“Pedestrian counts, available in real-time at high frequencies, can provide an opportunity to gauge the current situation and forecast patterns in local level economic activity, providing valuable insight to local councils and urban planning,” de Silva said.
“Our research indicates the broad change in working week-related engagement patterns.”
“It was particularly interesting, but not surprising, to see a change in the least busy day.”
“Prior to the pandemic the least busy day was Sunday, but now that has changed to Monday.”
The busiest times of the working week of 8-9am, 12-2pm, and 4-6pm in 2022 are back to only about 45%, 65%, and 62%, respectively, of the numbers in 2019, indicating a high number of people are still working from home and those going into the city to work are starting later.
In comparison, the evening (8pm to midnight) and early hours after midnight (until 4am) which are generally associated with nightlife and entertainment times, are back to about 89% and 95% respectively.
“It great to see pedestrian nightlife activity in Melbourne’s CBD has appeared to recover, however we suspect that this increased activity is insufficient to compensate for the decrease in worker traffic during the week,” de Silva said.
“The longer the ‘blended’ office environment is maintained the more entrenched it may become, causing structural changes in the way we use the CBD – resulting in new challenges and opportunities.”
Mapping local economic recovery paths using pedestrian counts. A City of Melbourne Case Study was published in the MPRA Paper (117154), University Library of Munich, Germany.
Maria Yanotti (University of Tasmania), Ashton de Silva (RMIT University), Sveta Angelopoulos (RMIT University), Sarah Sinclair (RMITUniversity), Yonatan Navon (RMIT University).
