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No sign of breakout in Wage Price Index

“The increase in the ABS Wage Price Index released today is a return to levels last seen in 2019 and early 2020. Looked at from a longer time frame, the latest increase is in line with the relatively low rates of nominal wages increases seen over most of the last decade,” Innes Willox, Chief Executive of the national employer association Ai Group, said today.

“Part of the September quarter increase is likely to be due to the recent spike in the CPI.

“We do not see this increase in wage rates as a sign of a wages breakout or one that should change our fundamental outlook for inflation or interest rates which is broadly in line with that of the Reserve Bank.

“We would caution against making too much of the relative change in wages across industries or occupations in any one year or quarter. For example, the rise of 3.4 percent in the year to September 2021 in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector is in part a partial catch up due to lower relative movements in earlier periods,” Mr Willox said.

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