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Just four years ago, te reo Māori was on a “pathway towards extinction” unless resources were put into teaching young Māori.

But a new mathematical model combined with recent data suggests the future of Māori language is not as grim as it once was.

My looks at the future trajectory of Māori language acquisition over the next few decades. Based on recent data, my model suggests the Māori language could be on a path to recovery.

For over 50 years, have played a significant role in supporting the language’s resurgence.

The progress of te reo Māori provides hope for campaigners working to save the 55% of world languages destined to be by the end of the century.

Rescuing te reo Māori

Māori revitalisation efforts began in earnest in the late 1970s. The first kōhanga reo was opened in 1982, and te reo Māori was under the Maori Language Act 1987.

Despite these efforts, there have been ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the language. According to the 2018 Census, just 4% of New Zealanders reported they were fluent speakers of te reo Māori, up from 3.7% in 2013.

In the (also based on self-reported data), the number of people able to speak te reo Māori, at least fairly well, increased – from 6.1% in 2018 to 7.9% in 2021.

This was the first time there was a significant increase in this level of te reo Māori proficiency.

In 2019, the Labour government committed to the revitalisation of te reo Māori by setting a (at any level of proficiency) by 2040.

Modelling the future

My research is based on several sources of data – including the Census, the General Social Survey and the of Māori wellbeing. The goal is to model how many speakers of te reo Māori we can expect in 20 or 30 years.

To understand this future path, I use my model to create different possible trajectories and compare them to these data sources. After finding the trajectories that best match, I extend these trajectories into the next few decades to estimate how many people might speak te reo in the future.

Some of the data, particularly from the more recent General Social Survey and the number of students learning te reo in schools and at university level, pointed to growth in te reo Māori acquisition. For example, enrolments in tertiary te reo courses have increased by 93% over the past ten years.

According to the model and current data, achieving one million speakers by 2040 is within reach, but it will take an increased commitment from the government and communities to make this future more likely.

Developing policies to help

The next step of the research will be to better understand the role of government policy, iwi and the public in encouraging the adoption of te reo Māori.

Such policies include more te reo Māori in schools, providing more access to university-level te reo courses, encouraging fluent speakers to become teachers, increasing the use of bilingual signs, and promoting the use of te reo Māori at home.

But these are not the sort of policies we can expect from the current government, which has actively of te reo Māori and is for public servants to learn the language.

This year’s Wiki o te Reo Māori (Māori Language Week) also comes amid an around the constitutional role of Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Treaty of Waitangi).

There is likely enough momentum within the reo community to keep the language growing in the short term. But if these policy settings were to continue (or worsen) over several years, it could have a negative effect on the future trajectory of te reo.

There are a lot of Indigenous languages being lost at the moment. Research has shown this can cause irrevocable harm for the communities they belong to.

It is important for the wellbeing of Māori that their language and culture are preserved. And it benefits all New Zealanders to have an understanding of one of the foundational languages of the country.

Based on the modelling, the future is looking hopeful in this respect.