Payroll jobs increased 0.5 per cent in the month to 9 December 2023, after relatively little change over the previous month, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
David Taylor, ABS head of labour statistics, said: “The rise in payroll jobs between 11 November and 9 December was underpinned by further strong growth in the Retail trade industry, through the peak shopping season, accounting for around 40 per cent of the total rise in payroll jobs. This seasonal increase usually peaks at the end of the year, before the number of jobs noticeably falls after Christmas and into January.”
| 2022 (pts) | 2023 (pts) | |
|---|---|---|
| 106.7 | 110.6 | |
| 107.3 | 109.8 | |
| 108.1 | 111.3 | |
| 108.3 | 111.3 | |
| 108.8 | 111.3 | |
| 108.6 | 111.0 | |
| 108.8 | 110.8 | |
| 107.1 | 110.9 | |
| 106.5 | 110.9 | |
| 105.2 | 111.0 | |
| mid-Mar | 106.8 | 110.7 |
| 107.5 | 110.8 | |
| 107.7 | 111.0 | |
| 107.1 | 110.6 | |
| 107.6 | 110.0 | |
| 106.9 | 110.1 | |
| 107.0 | 110.5 | |
| 107.0 | 110.7 | |
| 107.6 | 110.2 | |
| 107.4 | 110.2 | |
| 107.8 | 110.3 | |
| 107.4 | 110.2 | |
| 108.0 | 110.5 | |
| mid-Jun | 107.8 | 109.9 |
| 109.4 | 110.0 | |
| 109.6 | 110.1 | |
| 109.2 | 108.9 | |
| 109.6 | 108.8 | |
| 109.3 | 108.9 | |
| 108.5 | 109.3 | |
| 109.8 | 109.4 | |
| 109.7 | 109.3 | |
| 109.8 | 109.3 | |
| 109.3 | 109.9 | |
| 110.3 | 109.9 | |
| 110.7 | 109.2 | |
| 110.9 | 109.2 | |
| mid-Sep | 110.6 | 109.4 |
| 110.7 | 109.7 | |
| 110.4 | 110.6 | |
| 111.4 | 111.3 | |
| 112.2 | 111.6 | |
| 112.7 | 112.3 | |
| 112.6 | 112.1 | |
| 113.5 | 112.7 | |
| 114.3 | 113.1 | |
| 115.4 | 113.6 | |
| 115.8 | 114.2 | |
| 116.2 | 114.9 | |
| mid-Dec | 115.7 | 115.3 |
| 116.4 | ||
| 115.2 |
Along with the seasonal increase in Retail trade jobs (up 1.9 per cent), seasonal changes were also seen in other industries, coming into the end of year holiday period. The next largest increases were in Transport, postal and warehousing (up 1.0 per cent) and Arts and recreation services (up 0.9 per cent).
“Weekly data provides useful insights into how the number of jobs changes through the course of the year, industry by industry, leading into the end of year peak. Across late December and January they also show the extent of seasonal change in the labour market, as parents and carers take time off and businesses reduce their operations during the summer holidays,” Mr Taylor said.
During times of high seasonality in the labour market, and in the absence of seasonally adjusted figures, annual estimates can improve the interpretation of estimates. Comparing estimates at similar times in the year reduces the seasonal effect.
| 2020-21 (pts) | 2021-22 (pts) | 2022-23 (pts) | 2023-24 (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.7 | 96.1 | 99.9 | 105.5 | |
| 95.2 | 97.4 | 100.5 | 105.8 | |
| 96.7 | 99.5 | 102.7 | 108.2 | |
| 97.5 | 100.5 | 104.1 | 109.6 | |
| 98.1 | 101.1 | 104.9 | 110.4 | |
| 98.7 | 101.6 | 105.5 | 111.2 | |
| 99.2 | 102.3 | 106.1 | 111.8 | |
| 99.5 | 102.6 | 105.9 | 112.4 | |
| 99.5 | 103.1 | 105.7 | 112.8 | |
| 99.9 | 103.3 | 106.0 | 113.2 | |
| mid-Mar | 100.0 | 103.7 | 107.0 | 113.4 |
| 99.1 | 103.8 | 107.4 | 113.5 | |
| 95.6 | 103.7 | 107.5 | 113.7 | |
| 93.1 | 102.8 | 107.2 | 113.5 | |
| 91.7 | 102.5 | 107.4 | 112.8 | |
| 91.7 | 102.7 | 106.8 | 112.6 | |
| 92.3 | 103.0 | 106.4 | 112.9 | |
| 92.8 | 103.3 | 107.0 | 113.3 | |
| 93.5 | 103.7 | 107.5 | 113.6 | |
| 94.2 | 104.0 | 107.8 | 114.0 | |
| 94.5 | 104.2 | 108.1 | 114.0 | |
| 94.9 | 103.9 | 108.3 | 114.0 | |
| 95.7 | 103.5 | 108.2 | 114.0 | |
| mid-Jun | 96.2 | 103.7 | 108.6 | 114.1 |
| 96.3 | 103.8 | 109.1 | 114.3 | |
| 96.3 | 103.5 | 109.6 | 114.1 | |
| 97.5 | 103.6 | 110.0 | 113.6 | |
| 98.6 | 104.4 | 110.9 | 113.9 | |
| 98.7 | 104.1 | 110.9 | 113.8 | |
| 98.9 | 102.9 | 111.0 | 113.9 | |
| 99.1 | 103.1 | 111.4 | 114.1 | |
| 99.2 | 102.9 | 111.5 | 114.2 | |
| 99.1 | 102.8 | 111.8 | 114.4 | |
| 99.2 | 102.1 | 112.0 | 114.6 | |
| 99.3 | 101.6 | 112.2 | 114.7 | |
| 99.6 | 101.7 | 112.2 | 114.4 | |
| 100.0 | 102.3 | 112.4 | 114.5 | |
| mid-Sep | 100.2 | 102.7 | 112.4 | 114.7 |
| 100.0 | 102.5 | 112.0 | 114.7 | |
| 99.3 | 102.2 | 111.6 | 115.0 | |
| 99.5 | 102.6 | 111.8 | 115.6 | |
| 100.4 | 104.3 | 112.4 | 116.3 | |
| 100.7 | 105.5 | 112.8 | 116.7 | |
| 100.9 | 106.4 | 112.9 | 116.3 | |
| 101.3 | 106.9 | 113.0 | 116.1 | |
| 102.1 | 107.4 | 113.5 | 116.3 | |
| 102.4 | 107.9 | 113.8 | 116.5 | |
| 102.8 | 108.2 | 114.1 | 116.7 | |
| 103.3 | 108.7 | 114.4 | 116.8 | |
| mid-Dec | 103.4 | 108.5 | 114.2 | 116.8 |
| 102.6 | 107.7 | 113.5 | ||
| 98.8 | 104.0 | 110.2 |
“Over the year we have consistently seen annual growth in payroll jobs continue to slow, falling from between 5 to 6 per cent in the first half of 2023, to around 2 to 3.5 per cent in the second half of 2023.”
“However, it is also important to remember that this slower growth follows a particularly strong period of growth through 2022-23,” said Mr Taylor.
Payroll jobs rose in all eight states and territories over the month, with the strongest rises in Tasmania (up 1.1 per cent), Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia (all up 0.6 per cent).
“Over the month, Retail trade jobs accounted for a large share of total jobs growth across the states and territories,” Mr Taylor said.
