Issued: 22 October 2024
Spring warmth is building over large parts of Australia this week with above average temperatures on Tuesday.
Heatwave warnings remain current across northern Australia and high to extreme Fire Danger Ratings are affecting parts of the country.
Senior Meteorologist Jonathan How said the heat will peak in Victoria, Tasmania, southern NSW and eastern South Australia on Tuesday. Maximum temperatures will be 6-12°C above the October average with strengthening northerly winds.
“High fire dangers are forecast for north-west Victoria, western Tasmania and eastern SA from Tuesday,” he said.
“Melbourne is forecast to reach 32°C on Tuesday, which would make it the warmest October day in 5 years (since 33.8°C on 24 Oct 2019), and the warmest day of this year since March.”
“Maximum temperatures will reach the low-to-mid 30s across northern Victoria and southern NSW today, and the mid-20s for Tasmania. Hobart is forecast to reach 25°C – also its warmest day this year since March.”
The warmest forecast temperatures in south-east Australia on Tuesday include Mildura, Victoria (36°C), Renmark, SA (36°C) and Broken Hill, NSW (35°C).
But the heat will be short-lived in south-east Australia as a surface trough will move through on Tuesday, bringing cooler southerly winds.
“Cooler winds will move through South Australia and south-west Victoria by the early afternoon, and then push into remaining parts of Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW into the evening. Temperatures will fall by 5-10°C following the change,” he said.
Cool to cold conditions will continue over South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania on Wednesday, with showers for Tasmania and southern Victoria. Snow flurries are possible in elevated areas from Wednesday night.
While it will remain cool over the south-east on Wednesday, the focus of the heat will shift into northern and eastern NSW, and southern inland Qld. Maximum temperatures in these areas will be 4-8°C above average. Sydney is forecast to reach 27°C on Wednesday, but it will be warmer inland. Forecast maximums for Wednesday include 31°C at Dubbo, 33°C at Toowoomba and 38°C at Charleville.
The cool change will move over the rest of NSW and southern Qld from late Wednesday and into Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible for eastern NSW and south-east/central Qld on Thursday with severe thunderstorms also possible.
In contrast, Thursday will see heat build over western inland parts of Western Australia. Maximum temperatures will be 6-12°C above average away from the coast, reaching the mid-30s through the Wheatbelt.
In northern Australia, the build-up continues with hot and humid conditions expected along the Northern Territory, Kimberley and Cape York coasts, with showers and storms possible most days this week.
Jonathan How said the combination of heat and humidity is driving current heatwave warnings across the Kimberley, Top End and Cape York.
“Storms could extend to inland parts of the north at times this week as well, although these will bring little to no rain to interior areas. Dry storms can bring a risk of new bushfire ignitions,” he said.
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