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This week, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters went to a meeting of island states strongly affected by human-induced climate change.

Or, in more conventional language, Australian leaders attended the annual Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga.

Since 1971, this forum has been the top diplomatic meeting for Pacific nations, including Australia and New Zealand. Security was on the agenda this year, against a backdrop of geopolitical manoeuvring and . But one issue made its presence felt above all else: climate change.

At the forum’s opening, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres :

There is an enormous injustice in relation to the Pacific and it’s the reason I am here […] The small islands don’t contribute to climate change but everything that happens because of climate change is multiplied here.

Australia is walking a difficult line at the summit. Pointing to our domestic green energy progress isn’t enough. Our neighbours are focused on Australia’s emergence as the world’s of fossil fuel emissions and steady opening of more gas and coal fields. Even as Australia’s climate and migration pact with Tuvalu came into effect, Tuvalu’s climate change minister, Maina Talia, to the “immoral and unacceptable” acts of opening new mines, continuing fossil fuel subsidies and exporting fossil fuels.

Australian leaders hope to co-host the world’s top climate talks in 2026 in partnership with . While some Pacific leaders are opposed to co-hosting without an Australian pledge to end new goal and gas projects, others see it as a way Australia can show it is truly part of the ““.

What happened at the forum?

A big-ticket item at this year’s forum was the , a pact between Australia and Tuvalu signed last year and coming into effect at the forum. Minister for International Development and the Pacific, Pat Conroy, claimed the

most significant agreement between Australia and one of its Pacific partners since the agreements for Papua New Guinea’s independence in 1975.

The pact allows 280 Tuvaluans a year to move to Australia, whilst committing Australia to funding climate adaptation work and disaster response efforts on the islands. Significantly, the treaty also states Australia will recognise the statehood of Tuvalu – even if it were to be submerged due to climate change.

In return, Tuvalu and Australia will agree “” on any arrangements involving Tuvalu’s security or defence. Effectively, this gives Australia the extraordinary ability to block any actions of Tuvalu it feels do not serve its regional interests. This is significant, as China its influence in the Pacific.

At the leaders forum on Thursday, the joint bid to host the 31st United Nations climate conference is expected to be discussed. It’s not guaranteed, as Türkiye has also . Pacific leaders have made it clear they will for Australia to go beyond efforts to cut local emissions.

What else might we see?

Analysts have been closely watching how New Zealand leaders approach the forum. While New Zealand has very strong connections to the Pacific and has been actively supporting climate adaptation work in many Pacific nations, the new right wing government is showing signs of backing away from domestic climate efforts.

At the forum, New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, for downplaying the human role in changing the climate and claiming some Pacific islands are actually growing.

Are island nations united? Not on everything. But on climate, they have learned the power of speaking with a united voice. In recent years, Pacific nations have become the new face of climate diplomacy. At the 2022 Sharm el-Sheikh climate talks in Egypt, Pacific nations were in their push to secure better promises of funding to cover loss and damage done by climate change.

Pacific expert George Carter this week the effective Pacific approach: inviting Australia to be more active as a member of the Pacific family while at the same time pressing us to cut reliance on fossil fuels.

Pacific leaders have consistently said they are willing to take their allegiances elsewhere if high-level rhetoric does not turn into action. In 2019, former Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama claimed climate reluctance by Australia’s Morrison government would push Pacific nations .

This is because adapting to sea level rise is expensive, and Pacific nations are small.

Vanuatu, for instance, was the first nation to figure out how much climate adaption would . The answer: A$260 million by 2030 just to respond to loss and damage. To phase out fossil fuels and decarbonise the nation in addition to adaptation projects would cost $1.75 billion – a staggering amount for a small country.

Vanuatu is already the world’s . Rising to the challenge of protecting shorelines and relocating villages comes on top of that.

Fiji has completed six climate-related community relocations to date. According to the government, and will need assistance soon. Without external funding, the need will soon dwarf what the government can offer.

What’s next?

For the Pacific, climate change is everything. When Guterres talked about moving away from fossil fuels, many

It’s unlikely Australia can keep the Pacific onside with bilateral pacts, regional policing initiatives or by pointing to domestic efforts to go green and achieve net-zero later. For the Pacific, the future is now. Climate change is lapping at their shores, and future promises are worth very little.

Liam Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.