The votes have been cast, but the helter skelter race to form the next Tasmanian government is just beginning.
Authors
Robert Hortle
Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
Richard Eccleston
Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
While the results aren’t likely to be formalised for a couple of weeks, the island state’s voters Labor or the Liberals the 18 lower house seats needed to form a majority government. Overall, there has been a significant swing against the Liberal government, with the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) likely to be the main beneficiaries.
The Liberals are likely to secure the most seats in the next Tasmanian parliament. Premier Jeremy Rockliff “the fourth consecutive win” for the Liberal party.
However, it remains to be seen whether they can secure the support of the three or four crossbenchers they will need to form government. What is clear is that negotiations to form the next Tasmanian government will take days, or even weeks.
What do the numbers show so far?
The next parliament looks like it will have 14 Liberals, ten from Labor, four Greens, two from the JLN, and two independents – with the remaining three seats too close to call. The final numbers will be confirmed once preferences have been distributed.
As expected, many Tasmanians turned away from the two major parties. The primary vote swing against the Liberal government looks to be around 12%, but Labor appears to have gained less than 1% statewide. Almost 34% of voters opted for minor parties and independents. It was a particularly strong result for the Greens, who are in with a chance of picking up the final undecided seats in at least three electorates.
The JLN did not perhaps do as well as expected. Their lack of a “lead” candidate in each seat meant their candidates pulled votes away from each other.
Both of the MPs that defected from the Liberal Party last year – leading Rockliff to call the election – failed to win back their seats as independents.
All this means that the process of forming the next Tasmanian government is likely to be full of twists, turns and controversy.
What now?
During the campaign, Labor and the Liberals both ruled out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN or the Greens in exchange for their support. Now, they may find themselves backtracking on this and coming to the negotiating table instead.
The two leaders struck markedly different tones in their speeches late on Saturday night.
Rockliff claimed victory, stating bullishly that “Tasmanians have not voted for a change of government” and that he will seek to lead a Liberal minority government. This would represent the continuation of unstable situation he called the election to escape, depending on how the crossbench views his assumption of the Liberals’ right to continued rule. Some of the Liberal party’s during the campaign will not have endeared them to crossbenchers – particularly those from the JLN.
Rebecca White did not concede defeat, but was more conciliatory. She acknowledged that minority government is likely to be the norm in Tasmania, and said that “Labor will be ready to work with the parliament to implement our agenda […] if that is the will of the people”.
All this is a bit ambiguous – will she go to the crossbench and attempt to cobble together a coalition? There were rumours throughout the night from journalists’ sources that this was a possibility, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Given Labor may only end up with ten seats, they’d need the support of eight crossbenchers, which would be no mean feat.
Adding a bit of spice to the mix is the potential for both leaders to face challenges from within their own ranks.
Labor’s very small improvement on its disappointing 2021 result will be a concern for party strategists, although there is no obvious successor to White. Rockliff claimed to be “just getting started”, but may well be privately concerned about former federal senator Eric Abetz’s barnstorming entry into Tasmanian parliament.
On the ABC’s coverage, Abetz was quick to point out the swing against the Liberals, and highlight the need for the party to review some of its policies and decision making.
And for the nation?
The 2024 Tasmanian election leaves us with a couple of things to think about ahead of the next federal election.
Tasmania’s new parliament is just the latest piece of evidence that two-party dominance across Australia.
It’s true that Tasmania’s makes it easier for independents and minor party candidates to get elected. However, the poor Liberal and Labor primary votes will worry federal party strategists who hoped that the 2022 was a one off.
Certainly Bridget Archer and Andrew Wilkie will take comfort from the result where authentic, independent-minded candidates did well. It’s also clear that federal Labor have a lot of work to do in regional Tasmania if they are to retain Lyons and win back Braddon.
State election results haven’t always been the best predictor of federal election outcomes. However, that doesn’t mean that national party strategists will ignore what has happened in each of Tasmania’s five seats.
Another simmering issue is fixed parliamentary terms. Independents and often argue that “snap” elections disadvantage them, because they lack the ongoing resources and campaign apparatus’ of the major parties. Rockliff’s early election call to this effect from independents and minor parties in Tasmania, who felt cheated out of time to prepare.
All other have fixed term parliaments. If the fallout from the Tasmanian election sparks further debate on this topic, it might the issue at the federal level.
But for now, let’s hope that the major parties can swallow their pride, accept that they didn’t convince Tasmanians of the need for majority government and negotiate an agreement with the crossbench. Doing so would show respect for the democratic will of the Tasmanian people and demonstrate willingness to put aside the politics and get on with addressing the state’s many challenges.
Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.
Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
