The election of Donald Trump for his second presidential term has led to widespread fears of an in the United States.
Author
- Chris Ogden
Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
Quite how that might play out remains speculative, for now at least. But evidence from Trump’s first term, as well as his campaign policies and cabinet nominations since the election, suggest those fears are not without foundation.
Another way of looking at this, however, is that Trump’s return simply echoes realities within the international system’s other great powers – China, Russia and India have all displayed similar political pathologies for some time now.
Due to their collective power and influence in determining the nature of the world order, Trump’s victory thus marks the amplification of a deeply autocratic era in global politics.
The hallmarks of what we might call this “ can be seen in a variety of ways, as these four horsemen of authoritarianism charge ahead with their policies and plans.
Strongman politics
Donald Trump and his counterparts – China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and India’s Narendra Modi – are all bombastic, divisive and confrontational leaders. They embody the whereby power is focused on a single, would-be omnipotent individual.
As well as sharing similar and developing cults of personality around themselves, they seek to rule for long periods.
In 2018, from China’s constitution. In 2020, Putin amended the Russian constitution, allowing him to rule until 2036, leading to what’s been described as a ” “.
In power since 2014, Modi has won the past three elections in India. Accused of having a , his success has rested on , .
Trump, too, has flirted with ideas of a third term (impossible under current constitutional rules), saying, ” “.
Constraining human rights
Each of these leaders has overseen governments that have sought to narrow and constrain human rights. This includes within Russian media, and in India, and in China. In all three countries, this involves using legal mechanisms to stifle dissent.
Reports after Trump’s victory suggest he also wants to protest and dissent. The of the US Supreme Court matches similar trends in the other three countries.
This has been likened to a shift away from the rule of law (which underpins a free and open society) towards “rule by law” (whereby the law becomes a tool of control).
Globally, there have been warnings that reduced freedoms of speech, association and expression . The 2024 by watchdog group Civicus estimates 72% of the world’s population now lives under authoritarian regimes.
Attacking minorities
The first Trump administration against minority ethnic groups, LGBTQ people, those with disabilities, and immigrants.
Trump’s closed the US border to Muslims, while the of up to 13 million illegal migrants was a mainstay of his 2024 campaign.
In Russia, attacks against minorities and foreigners are commonplace, with racism in the country described as ” ” by Amnesty International. Since 2014, violence and discrimination against India’s 200 million Muslims has under Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The actively discriminate against Muslim , especially in Kashmir and Assam.
These chime with in Xinjiang and Tibet where ethnic minorities are . Beijing is also building a national designed to enhance public trust in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and create a society of ” “.
Weakened electoral systems
While ostensibly democratic, there are glaring weaknesses in the US, Indian and Russian political and electoral systems, which undercut claims of electoral equality, fairness and plurality.
While not as blatantly authoritarian as China (under the of the CCP since 1949, and which ), elections in Russia are essentially non-competitive and only a .
In the US, the , , and tilt the political landscape towards particular interests.
Much the same is true of India, which has shifted towards a form of ” “, and is described now as only a ” ” by monitoring group Freedom House. These trends are exacerbated by India’s persistent and .
Surveillance and security
All of these authoritarian trends are underpinned by modern , directed inward towards a country’s own citizens as much as outwards, and enabled by Big Tech and now AI.
What has been described as ” ” takes different forms. The Chinese social credit system uses such technology to mainly through financial levers.
India’s allows government agencies to monitor all mobile phone, landline and internet communications with . The pervasive reach of Russia’s capabilities has resulted in a .
In the US, whistleblower the mass surveillance of telephone records in 2013, which was found to be illegal in 2020. Now, Trump’s alliance with Elon Musk has potential implications for his administration’s approach to AI and national security – including Musk continuing to to boost Trump’s political support.
Trump’s return has normalised and supercharged authoritarianism internationally, making it the rule rather than the exception. America’s autocratic drift is now part of a broader global pattern, one that threatens democratic forces everywhere.
