The Brisbane Lions are the underdogs for Saturday’s AFL grand final against Sydney.
Authors
Brendon Hyndman
Associate Professor of Health & Physical Education (Adj.), Charles Sturt University
Tom Hartley
Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania
Vaughan Cruickshank
Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania
After defeating Geelong in Victoria for the , they have reached the grand final from fifth on the ladder, without a rest week or double-chance (as teams that finish in the top four enjoy).
Taking into account the VFL origins of both clubs, this will be the first Lions-Swans grand final for .
The Lions’ task against the Swans, who finished as minor premiers, is formidable but not impossible.
As history shows, upsets happen. But what have been the greatest shocks in men’s VFL/AFL grand final history?
Sports betting odds are one way to determine an upset, but that is , so we delved beyond odds.
Other considerations include comparing the respective ladder positions of the opposing teams, the length of time since a team’s previous premiership, the age and experience of the playing group, or even the team’s record at the venue or against the other team.
We have given greatest weighting to ladder position going into the finals, which we believe is the fairest indicator of the magnitude of an upset, because it signifies a team’s performance and consistency during that season.
Below is our verdict on the biggest grand final upsets of all time, with reference to these various criteria.
Experience of playing group
#10 – 1993 Essendon defeated Carlton
The 1993 “” premiership was a big surprise after they finished eighth in 1992 (the top five teams made finals).
They were (out of 15 teams) after round seven in 1993 and had to come from down at half-time in the preliminary final.
The average age of the “Baby Bombers” was just 24 years and 105 days when they defeated Carlton. In comparison, the of Carlton’s playing group was 25.4 years.
The of premiership teams from the past 20 years has been 26.2 years.
What made this win even more remarkable was Essendon had six players with AFL games. The for premiership teams over the past two decades has been 126.7 games.
Track record between clubs or seasons
#9 – 2017 Richmond defeated Adelaide
Richmond completed the greatest one-year turnaround in VFL/AFL history when they won the 2017 decider.
The Tigers rose from 13th on the ladder in 2016 to secure their first premiership in in 2017.
Richmond upset Adelaide, who finished top of the ladder and were to win the grand final. The Crows had also beaten Richmond by when they met earlier in 2017.
The relentless of Richmond’s “” (players shorter than ) was a key to victory on grand final day.
#8 – 1972 Carlton defeated Richmond
Carlton had not beaten Richmond in a final since and their recent record was ten straight losses to Richmond.
The Blues had also lost all four games against the Tigers that year.
They surprised the highly favoured Richmond team with a “” that involved playing numerous players in different positions.
This was the highest-scoring grand final of all time, with 327 combined points. Carlton kicked in their win.
#7 – 1970 Carlton defeated Collingwood
Collingwood was for the grand final, as the Magpies finished top of the ladder and defeated Carlton three times in the 1970 season, including by 77 points in round 19.
This match was also recognised as the greatest grand final in AFL/VFL history, and featured one of the of the 20th century. It also had the biggest ever VFL/AFL crowd of .
After trailing by 44 points at half-time, Ron Barrassi’s instructions to play on and in the second half were credited for helping Carlton’s upset win.
#6 – 2008 Hawthorn defeated Geelong
Geelong won the 2007 premiership by 119 points and would eventually win the 2009 premiership.
Meeting the team with the in the competition was all that stood in the way for the in the 2008 grand final.
Geelong had finished four games clear on top of the ladder in 2008, only losing all season.
Yet a combination of Geelong’s poor kicking for goal, Hawthorn’s and clever coaching led to an unexpected victory for the team described as ““.
#5 – 1958 Collingwood defeated Melbourne
Between , Melbourne blitzed the competition, winning five of the six premierships on offer, two of them over Collingwood.
In the middle of this Melbourne dominance, and having lost to the Demons in their semi-final, Collingwood achieved ““.
Collingwood’s victory stopped Melbourne winning six premierships in a row. It would be the Magpies’ last flag for 32 years, and has been described as their ““.
Ladder positioning
#4 – 1998 Adelaide defeated North Melbourne
Between 1902 and 1971, the VFL had a top four , which expanded to include at least the top five teams from 1972, and evolved to become a top eight from 1994.
Described as and up against the future 1999 premiers, Adelaide became the first team from outside the top four to win the premiership since 1900.
They did so despite facing a deficit of 24 points at half-time.
During the grand final, North Melbourne set the record for the in VFL/AFL grand final history, with eight goals and 22 behinds.
#3 – 1900 Melbourne defeated Fitzroy
During 1900, the regular season positions did not count when finals arrived, meaning all teams qualified to play finals.
Fitzroy was the force in the league and were two games clear on top of the ladder with 11 wins and just three losses.
They were described by most spectators as being a “” to secure their third consecutive premiership.
Yet Melbourne, which finished sixth (out of eight teams) during the regular season with five fewer victories, went on to win all of their finals games and toppled Fitzroy in the grand final.
It was such a surprise that an of the VFL finals system was made within just two seasons to limit the finals to the top four teams.
#2 – 1916 Fitzroy defeated Carlton
The impacts of war resulted in just four teams playing in 1916.
During the regular season, Fitzroy lost nine in a row and ended up with the .
Despite finishing last on the reduced ladder, Fitzroy won every finals match and overcame ladder leaders Carlton to take the .
The upset was even more considering Fitzroy was without league-leading goalkicker Jimmy Freake and forward Jim Toohey. Both had combined for almost half of Fitzroy’s goals over the preceeding four seasons.
Fitzroy defeated Carlton twice in the finals, having lost three consecutive in-season games to them and overcoming a half-time grand final deficit.
#1 – 2016 Western Bulldogs defeated Sydney
Ending a 62-year premiership drought, the Bulldogs came from seventh on the ladder to claim their first since .
The Bulldogs’ journey to the grand final was nothing short of challenging.
After commencing their finals campaign with one of the longest trips in football to take on West Coast in Perth, they then downed the reigning premiers Hawthorn at the MCG, preventing a for the Hawks.
The next stage of the journey involved travelling to Sydney for an epic preliminary final clash against Greater Western Sydney, resulting in the Bulldogs holding on in a nailbiting finish.
In the grand final, the Bulldogs came up against the top-of-the-table Sydney Swans, who had won eight of their final nine matches of the season. After trailing at half-time, the Bulldogs surged in the second half to victory.
Given the AFL expansions, professional transformation of the modern competition and the journey of finals battles across Australia for the 2016 Western Bulldogs, this ranks as the greatest achievement in the history of grand final upsets.
