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There have been widespread, large-scale protests against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in Israel for more than a year.

These have been in response to a controversial plan and then the horrors of the Hamas attack and the fate of Israeli hostages in Gaza.

So far, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition government remains intact. However, draft notices in recent days to about 1,000 young Jewish religious men now have the potential to bring it down.

The current war in Gaza – as well as the in recent days – have made clear an urgent need to increase the size of the Israeli army.

But the crisis surrounding the army service exemption for ultra-Orthodox youth is more than a political, economic or even moral issue. It touches on the very essence of the relationship between the Jewish state and its citizens.

The origins of the exemption

Israel’s founding father and first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, in 1948, during the war that resulted in the creation of Israel, to grant service exemptions in the newly founded Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to 400 ultra-Orthodox men (Haredim in Hebrew).

The idea of “” (“His Torah is his job”) was intended to allow these men to pursue their studies in Jewish religious institutes (yeshivas). The goal was to ensure the preservation of hundreds of years of Jewish learning and religious knowledge, which was under severe threat after millions of Jews perished in the Holocaust.

For many years, the number of exemptions remained capped. Following the 1977 elections, the Likud Party a governing coalition for the first time by wooing religious parties to join the government in exchange for removing the limitations on such exemptions.

As a result, by 2021, the number of exemptions jumped to almost each year, representing 18-year-old Jewish men and women required by law to enlist in the IDF.

For decades, this arrangement has caused significant within Israeli society.

Critics point to the inherent injustice it represents. A large majority of Israelis of all denominations dedicate years to serving in the army, with many risking their lives and even being killed in action. A politically powerful minority group, however, is given a free pass from any such obligation.

Financial interests in avoiding the draft

This inequality also has significant financial implications. The Haredim population is growing faster in proportion to other segments of the Israeli population due to higher fertility rates (six children per family, that of secular families).

Demographic suggest the Haredim will constitute about 25% of Israel’s population by 2065, up from about 13% today.

And in recent years, the Haredim have turned their growing population into increased political power in Israel’s system of proportional representation; they now have 19 members in the (Israel’s parliament) out of 120.

And over time, Haredi politicians have constructed a complex system of state financial to sustain the young men exempted from military service and their families. To maintain these benefits, the yeshivas list them as students until they turn 26 – the age when all citizens become exempt from service.

As a result, keeping the exemption arrangement intact has become a major economic pillar of the ultra-Orthodox sector.

Because of this, many Haredi men do not work, which has led to an of ultra-Orthodox women entering the workforce to support their families. Other men are working in violation of their IDF exemptions.

Religious leaders fear that army service will lead to , due to exposure to the outside world. For example, women are an integral part of the IDF, including in combat roles, but certain types of inter-gender interactions are perceived as “promiscuous” in ultra-Orthodox circles.

Yet, in recent years, the army has been able to incorporate a small number of ultra-Orthodox youth into specific units (such as the ), thanks to special adjustments made to accommodate their religious expectations and skill sets.

A threat to Netanyahu’s coalition

Despite the power of ultra-Orthodox political parties, attempts to codify the Haredi draft exemption into Israeli law have so far .

Last month, Israel’s Supreme Court an end to the funding of yeshivas that do not comply with draft quotas and instructed the army to start enlisting ultra-Orthodox men. The IDF then began issuing the first draft notices.

The ultra-Orthodox response has been defiant – the leadership yeshiva students to ignore the notices and started money to replace the government funding being withdrawn.

In March, the former chief Sephardic rabbi, Yitzhak Yosef, threatened to leave Israel if Haredim are forced to join the army, while other Haredi leaders have that they would “rather die” than obey the orders.

For the ultra-Orthodox parties, the draft exemption is the single most important issue. Unless a solution is found soon, they could elect to bring down Netanyahu’s government by leaving the coalition. This would allow the opposition to win a no-confidence vote.

There is little appetite among the members of the governing coalition to go to an election. Recent polls have predicted a for the Likud bloc.

Israel needs a new contract

More than a political question, the relationship between the state and its citizens is at the heart of the Haredi army draft conflict.

A core obligation of any government to its people – to provide security – was shattered on October 7. The army also needs more recruits.

Given this, many Israelis are now demanding that what they see as years of injustice and inequality be corrected by establishing a new contract between the ultra-Orthodox sector and the rest of society. They believe this is especially important as the size of the ultra-Orthodox community and the impact of their exemptions are expected to become ever more significant in coming years.

Ran Porat is a research associate at The Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) and Research Fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Reichman University, Herzliya, Israel. He is affiliated with Australian Centre for Jewish Civilization, Monash University,